India and Pakistan: Back to Square One?
Published on South Asia Monitor
August 24, 2014
August 24, 2014
Prime
Minister Modi’s invitation to Pakistan’s Nawaz Sharif along with leaders of
SAARC nations to his oath-taking ceremony on May 26 this year infused
enthusiasm and hope for the prospects of better India-Pakistan relations. This
was followed by a ‘Sari-Shawl’ diplomacy and exchange of letters reassuring
people of the sub-continent that dialogue would continue. Attempts for
reconciliation on part of both Modi and Sharif had come in for much praise in
both countries. People on both sides expressed hope for a paradigm shift in the
course of ties. Despite his anti-Pakistan rhetoric during the election campaign
and his evident hardline views, even critics of Narendra Modi heaped praise and
termed his invite to Sharif as a bold initiative – a diplomatic master-step.
In
this context the Indian government’s decision to cancel foreign secretary level
talks with Pakistan to be held on August 25 is no good news. India is upset
with the Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit holding consultations with
separatist leaders of the Hurriyat faction. In a strong message to Pakistan,
India has in categorical terms mentioned that dialogue can take place with
either India or the separatist elements. India also clarified that it does not
appreciate Pakistan’s repeated interference in an internal matter (namely Jammu
& Kashmir). While the nationalist lobby in India has commended this
decision, describing it as a strong and fitting response to incessant Pakistan
backed terrorism; some have criticized it as a knee-jerk reaction which will
only contribute to a setback in the peace process (An Inept Pakistan Policy, The Times of India – August 21).
The
larger question however remains to be answered and that is – what would be the
implications of this step on the long-term course of India-Pakistan relations?
Also, does this in any way signal the beginning of a shift in India’s Pakistan
policy? While India has never appreciated Pakistan’s engagement with Hurriyat
leaders stressing on the bilateral resolution of outstanding disputes, this
cancellation of talks is unprecedented. India has always been in knowledge of
the proximity between the Pakistani leadership and the separatist leadership in
Kashmir, though all it did was to express displeasure and disapproval of the meetings
between the two. Even during the Agra summit in 2001, the Indian leadership was
not quite happy with the then Pakistan president General Pervez Musharraf
meeting Hurriyat leaders at the sidelines of the summit. However, this did not
lead to a cancellation of the summit talks. Indian leaders right from Atal
Bihari Vajpayee to Manmohan Singh who sought to engage with Pakistan were aware
of its communications with separatists. Does this mean that a change in
leadership (a supposedly aggressive and right-wing leadership) at the centre
has made the difference to India’s response?
Even
before he assumed power, Narendra Modi was not viewed very positively in the
context of India-Pakistan relations. His anti-minority and hardline Hindu views
came in for some strong criticism in Pakistan’s media discourse which had
foreseen his rise to power within the fold of the BJP. An anti-Modi resolution
was brought by the opposition parties in Pakistan but was eventually blocked.
While Pakistan has termed the cancellation of talks as a setback to the process
of normalization; among several quarters in India this is being seen as a much
needed aggressive and nationalistic transformation of India’s ‘soft’ and
vulnerable foreign policy posture. Hawks have always lamented India’s weak
response to Pakistani overtures and in this breakdown of talks they see a
vindication of the purpose for which a nationalistic and hardline BJP led
government was voted to power.
The
Modi-Sharif bonhomie was viewed with great expectations from both sides owing
to the fact that both leaders depicted great interest in economic revival and
cooperation and possess a soft corner towards shared economic benefits. It was
believed that their economy-driven approach would act as a major boost in the
strengthening of relations. Notably, post the Mumbai terror attacks, the peace
process was in a deep freeze and with Modi’s invitation to Sharif worked to
ignite hope and thaw in a gloomy scenario. The cancellation of talks only
reinforces that when it comes to the issue of Jammu and Kashmir; both sides
like to remain rigid in their positions refusing to budge even an inch. No
matter who is in power, the dichotomy of opinions on Kashmir is reiterated as
India terms in an internal matter while Pakistan sticks to its position of
Kashmir being a dispute.
Pakistan’s
present internal strife and the weakening legitimacy of the Nawaz Sharif
government have only added to an already despondent scenario in the
relationship. One may recall the pressure that was exerted on Sharif by the
Pakistan army and fundamentalist block as he contemplated accepting Modi’s
invitation to the swearing in ceremony. It is only evident that in the case of
talks between India and Pakistan, apart from the leadership many extraneous
forces will also come into play. Though high expectations were pinned on the
present leadership for an improvement in relations, the present scenario comes
out as bleak. Still one cannot rule out any dramatic development in the course
of relations as the two countries have always swung from extreme hope and
optimism to a phase of lull. The implications of the breakdown of talks will
definitely be far-reaching as India and Pakistan would now look to starting
from the scratch. It would be interesting to observe the shape that India’s
Pakistan policy takes in the times to come and the Pakistani response to it in
wake of its own political, economic and democratic challenges.
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